Covid-19 Executive Briefing

Understanding the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the implications for the mining sector

- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 16 May

Many economists have cut their GDP forecasts. The 2020 consensus forecast for GDP growth is currently negative and many predict a recession.

Major market indices are improving as, despite oil dipping below zero, it has rebounded quickly.

-2.6%

With economists cutting their forecasts in response to the pandemic, the 2020 consensus forecast for GDP growth is currently -2.6%.

40%

Global foreign direct investment flows are forecast to fall by up to 40% in 2020,
from a value of $1.54tn in 2019, according to UNCTAD.

Impact of Covid-19 on asset prices

- SECTOR IMPACT: Mining -

Latest update: 17 June

GlobalData analyst view:

"Commodity prices began to stabilise in May, supported by rising demand from China and continued supply constraints, whilst sentiment is improving as lockdowns end."

The latest forecast for global construction output growth is a decline of 2.8%, versus initial expectations of 3.1% for 2020.

Lower automotive manufacturing will also impact demand for steel, aluminium, platinum, and palladium. Platinum demand is forecast to decline by 7% in 2020.

The number of mines on hold due to Covid-19 was 94 as of 12 June, down from 1,542 on 14 April.

impact on capital expenditure

Rio Tinto advised capex for the full year would be between $5-6bn, down from the previous guidance of $7bn.

Anglo American is cutting its 2020 capex by $1bn to $4-4.5bn.

Glencore is cutting capex from $5.5bn to between $4-4.5bn.

Freeport-McMoRan announced a cut in capex from $2.8bn to $2bn.

Vale announced a reduction from $5bn to $4.6bn as expenditure will be delayed until 2021.