Asteroid mining: aiming for the stars

Precious metals present on some asteroids might be within reach sooner than many people think. Credit: Photobank Kiev/Unsplash.

Mining metals from asteroids sounds like the premise of a sci-fi book series or the next Star Trek reboot, but it’s not as much of a starry-eyed distant dream as it may seem. The push for electrification and subsequent demand for battery metals, including lithium, cobalt and nickel, has led to an immense and frequently destructive rush on these materials around the world, raising concerns that we may not be able to meet our need for electrification without causing potentially irreparable damage to communities and the environment. Here, asteroids could provide the solution.  

We know that asteroids contain vast, vast, vast quantities of rare earth metals; smaller asteroids like 2012 DA14 could be worth up to $20trn, while much larger bodies like 16 Psyche could contain enough metal to meet the world’s needs for millions of years. But how do we get these chunks of floating space rock to earth to extract their contents?

The method of moving asteroids to where we want them is actually relatively simple: stop the asteroid from spinning, usually by using lasers or stopping it with thrusters, and then, at the exact right moment, firing thrusters to direct the asteroid towards our moon, pulling it into a stable orbit around Earth, where it can then be easily retrieved. While the process is relatively simple to do, it is wildly expensive, which so far has been the main stumbling block for wide-scale asteroid mining. But with space travel getting cheaper by the year, how close are we to economically viable asteroid mining?  

The growth of economic activity in space has been studied for many years now, including in a 2016 series of papers. Commercial reusable rockets, like those developed by SpaceX and others, have sent prices for launching equipment into space into a nosedive, crashing by a factor of 20 per kilogram; a crucial step in making asteroid mining commercially viable.   

Several companies have taken note, and many are optimistic that a commercial space mining future is just around the corner. Daniel Sax, co-founder and CEO at the Canadian Space Mining Corporation, is confident: “Space mining is definitely going to happen. It is an inevitability, is not a possibility and it’s going to happen in the very near-term.” He said, adding: “There’s going to be space mining that occurs in the lunar environment within the next 10 years to make water and oxygen and other key consumables for space exploration.”  

California-based Astroforge is arguably even more confident, having announced plans to launch its Odin spacecraft to do a close inspection of an asteroid beyond the moon. The launch, touted for early 2024, will be the first time a private company has sent a mission into space beyond the Earth and moon – if successful. Odin plans to do a close fly by of the type-M asteroid, using cameras to explore the object’s geology and confirm if it has a higher concentration of metals than Earth, as expected. Astroforge cofounder and CEO Matt Gialich is hopeful that the mission will be a triumph, following a successful test launch of the rocket in September, noting “The fact that that went smoothly and we didn’t show you a picture of a fireball means that we got through that gate. We’re in a really good position to make an attempt at the world’s first commercial deep space mission.”  

But in real world terms, will the economics work out?

More than one private venture has tried and failed to bring commercial asteroid mining to market. In the early 2010’s, two new companies emerged: Deep Space Industries and Planetary Resources. Their bold claims and star power - Planetary Resources was backed by Google cofounder Larry Page and had filmmaker-cum-adventurer James Cameron as a board member – brought in over $60m in venture capital. It wasn’t to be however, and both firms shut down operations in 2019 and 2018 respectively.  

But if the cost of the technology required continues to fall, the gains could be immense. Some individual asteroids are reported to contain upwards of $50bn worth of platinum; Astroforge believes that it can support mining missions with over 80% margins for platinum and similar metals. For those willing to dream bigger, the 16 Psyche asteroid is a goal: the core of this 226km wide asteroid is believed to contain iron, nickel and gold collectively worth $10,000 quadrillion. Many foresee significant personal financial gains in asteroid mining; the astrophysicist Neil DeGrasse Tyson believes that the asteroid mining industry will produce the world’s first trillionaire.  

The scientific and economic database Asterank, which tracks over 600,000 asteroids and tracks their potential value, has crunched the numbers on asteroid mining and produced an enticing figure. According to them, mining just the ten most cost-efficient asteroids (defined as those closest to Earth and highest in value) could produce profits of an eye-popping $1.5trn.  

In the face of immense figures like these, it is worth considering the potential impact asteroid mining could have on communities built around resource mining. Shriya Yarlagadda, editor-in-chief of the Harvard International Review, explained this potential risk in a 2022 article, noting that South Africa’s platinum industry employs over 451,000 people and makes up 8.2% of the nation’s GDP and stating “In a future where asteroid mining becomes the norm, South Africa’s economic performance would shrivel, harming the livelihoods of many South Africans.” She added that conversations around resource management in space must “not only involve countries with significant abilities to enter space and conduct asteroid mining operations but also those who stand to bear the brunt of its negative economic impacts – it is high time to bring all countries to the asteroid mining table.”  

Yarglagadda also presents another perspective on the potential impact of asteroid mining on the global economy, claiming that asteroid mining resources could flood the global raw materials market and cause a rapid devaluation of global raw materials that would quickly destroy the market.  

Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas remains steadfastly pessimistic about the commercial viability of asteroid mining, claiming that “Asteroid mining only works in a science-fiction world where metals are thousands of times more expensive than they are today. And in that world, plenty of metal deposits on Earth could be developed more economically.”  

Over at Astroforge, the team is convinced asteroid mining is a stellar idea and are willing to bet it all to prove it. “We’re an all-in or nothing company,” Gialich said. “All of our chips are in the centre of the table every six months. That’s what makes it fun and exciting to us, and this is the way we’ll continue to operate the company until we either mine an asteroid or go bankrupt.”