Australia’s coal production to fall towards 2030

Coal production is set to decline sharply from 2027 due to the closure of 24 mines. Credit: Oleg 08 / Shutterstock

Australia’s coal production is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2024, reaching an estimated 550 million tonnes (mt). This growth is largely driven by thermal coal, which accounts for more than 60% of the country's total coal output, with the remainder being metallurgical coal used in steelmaking. 

In 2024, the key mines driving this growth are Bengalla, Callide, Ironbark No 1, Maules Creek, Moolarben, Olive Downs Complex and Wilkie Creek. Their combined production is expected to rise from 41.1mt in 2023 to 54.7mt in 2024.  

Ironbark No1 and Olive Downs Complex mines commenced operations in late 2023 and April 2024 respectively, while the Wilkie Creek mine resumed production in early 2023 after being on care and maintenance since 2014. 

Coal production is then set to decline sharply from 2027 due to the planned closure of 24 mines including the Clermont in 2027, Yallourn and Springvale in 2028 and Oaky Creek in 2029. These closures will reduce production from mines that collectively produced 53.8Mt of coal in 2023. The closures reflect Australia's ongoing shift away from coal as part of its environmental policies aimed at reducing reliance on fossil fuels. 

Australian coal miners are facing cost inflation pressures, including higher labour, fuel and distribution costs. Coal royalties and rising expenses related to emissions management are further adding to their financial challenges.