Covid-19 briefing

Download GlobalData’s Covid-19 Executive Briefing report

- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 17 February

After weeks of gradual decline, GDP estimates for many countries have levelled off.

Polls show that employment prospects have consistently improved since July.

4.8%

The Japanese economy expanded by 3% (YoY) in Q4 2020, however economic growth for the full year shrank by 4.8%.

4.4%

The Conference Board forecasts the economic growth rate of the US at 2% (annualised rate) in Q1 2021 and at 4.4% and 3.1% for 2021 and 2022.

Impact of Covid-19 on employment outlook

- SECTOR IMPACT: MINING -

Latest update: 3 March

commodity impact

43%

Lower automotive manufacturing hit the price of platinum and palladium, which are used in autocatalysts. Palladium prices dropped 43% between 28 February and 16 March but recovered to pre-Covid levels helped by the lockdown in South Africa impacting supply.

39%

Platinum prices fell 39% from 1 January to 19 March 2020, but, with rising demand for retail platinum jewellery, reached $1,078/troy oz on 31 December and passed $1,300/troy oz in February 2021 before dropping back.

value chain impact (short term)

Much prospecting and exploration has been deferred due to financial consolidation by mining companies.

Construction activities were slowed down by lockdowns, whilst some investment decisions have stalled pending market improvements.

Large numbers of mines were temporarily closed in several markets, except where considered an essential service. Interruptions to supply chains will affect production.

Demand for many commodities, such as base metals and PGMs has dropped significantly with the slowdown of the global economy.

Key commodity developments

Thermal coal prices improved over December and January, helped by rising demand from China and Japan due to cold weather. Thermal power production in China, which is dominated by coal-fired power, increased by 11% year-on-year in December 2020.

The gold price reached an all-time high of $2,067/oz in early August, 2020 before gradually declining to $1,896.49/oz at the end of the year and was $1,735/oz at the end of February 2021. The decline has come with positive developments regarding vaccines and improvements in the US dollar towards the end of February.

After falling to a low of $4,617.5/t in 2020 in March 2020, the copper price (LME cash price) reached a high of $8,146/tonne on 8 January 2021 before dropping back to $7,877/tonne at the end of January, and then rose back up and past $9,000/t at the end of February. The price is expected to remain strong in 2021, supported by improvements in the global economy, continued demand from China to support infrastructure and other investments, and rising industrial demand.

The iron ore price started the year at $163.93/t and passed $170/t on 19 January. After dropping back, it rose again over the $170/t level at the end of February. Chinese crude steel production was up by 7% in 2020, supported by the government's push on infrastructure spending to support the economy

02/17/2024 09:00:29