Ukraine crisis briefing
Download GlobalData’s Ukraine Crisis Executive Briefing report
- ECONOMIC IMPACT -
Latest update: 6 May
Concerns over the supply of key commodities such as nickel, palladium and aluminium have led to sharp price increases, with nickel prices on the LME briefly topping $100,000/t on 8 March before trading was suspended.
Canadian miner Kinross first announced that it was suspending all activities in Russia, including its Udinsk development project in Khabarovsk Krai, and has more recently agreed to sell its Russian mine to Highland Gold Mining for $680m in cash.
The UN estimates that at least 15.7 million people inside Ukraine need humanitarian assistance.
GlobalData forecasts that the world economy will grow at just 3.5% in 2022 following 5.9% growth in 2021.
- SECTOR IMPACT: MINING -
Latest update: 6 May
There has been a significant impact on the mining industry’s supply chain, as Russia is among the top three producers of diamond, gold, platinum group metals and nickel. It is also a key supplier of seaborne and met coal to European markets, and iron ore, steel and aluminium internationally.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is principally a supplier of coal, iron ore and uranium, though in each case its share of global production is small.
Faced by sanctions, Severstal, one of Russia' largest steelmakers, is reported to be redirecting product to other markets such as Asia, the Middle East and South America.
Meanwhile, Ferrexpo announced force majeure due to concerns over the temporary suspension of the Pivdennyi port terminal, following the Russian invasion, with Ukranian miner and steel producer Metinvest doing the same. Many other operations have been put into conservation mode.
Anticipating shortages from Russia and Ukraine, Japan’s Nippon Steel is looking for alternate sourcing of feedstock from Brazil and Australian mining companies.
Diamond miner Alrosa has been heavily restricted from raising money through the US market, with President Biden’s executive order forbidding US firms from engaging in transactions with Alrosa involving “new debt of longer than 14 days maturity or new equity". The company is also closing its US office.
Aside from the operational impacts within the Ukraine, production from some Russian mines is being affected.
While Nornickel has stated that operations are continuing, and Polymetal reported on 9 March that all its operations in Russia and Kazakhstan continue undisrupted, Canadian miner Kinross announced that it was suspending all activities in Russia, including its Udinsk development project in Khabarovsk Krai.
Further to that, Kinross has agreed to sell its operations to Highland Gold Mining, one of the larger gold producers in Russia, for $680m, including $400m for Kupol and $280m for Udinsk.
Polymetal has advised that sales of silver and gold to China, Kazakhstan and East Asia remain unaffected by sanctions, and “physical demand for gold in Russia has been supported by the decision of the Russian Central Bank to resume gold purchases in the domestic market”.