From cobalt to code: why the DRC wants control of its geological future

T he Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) dominance in cobalt production has made it central to the global energy transition.

According to a recent GlobalData report, the DRC holds half of the world’s known cobalt reserves and produced around 75% of global cobalt supply in 2024, cementing its position at the heart of the global energy transition.

Now, an increasingly high-profile dispute over colonial-era geological archives suggests that access to geological data may prove almost as strategically valuable as the minerals themselves.

Millions of pages of historical geological records held at Belgium’s Royal Museum for Central Africa in Tervuren have become the focus of negotiations between Brussels and Kinshasa. While Belgium says the archives are already being digitised through an EU-backed programme, the DRC has pushed for faster access, with AI-driven explorer KoBold Metals becoming an unexpected player in the debate.

Junior N. Badila, founder of the London-based Mukuba Minerals Forum, argues the dispute reflects a broader shift in resource strategy. As AI transforms mineral exploration, he believes control over geological information, alongside reforms to the country’s mining code, will be critical if the DRC is to capture more value from its cobalt and wider critical mineral endowment.

Junior N. Badila: Global competition for critical minerals has intensified dramatically. Governments and mining companies are looking for ways to shorten exploration timelines while reducing geological risk. Historical geological information has therefore become an increasingly valuable economic asset.

Companies such as KoBold Metals demonstrate why. Its exploration model relies on combining historical drill logs, geological maps and geophysical surveys with satellite imagery, geochemical information and AI. When these datasets are integrated through machine learning (ML), they can accelerate discoveries while lowering exploration costs. Faster access to high-quality geological information can influence where billions of dollars of future investment are directed.

Junior N. Badila: Whenever I speak with officials in Kinshasa, the conversation rarely starts with history. It starts with time. Their argument is that the DRC cannot afford to wait years for geological information that could accelerate exploration today.

The discussion goes far beyond recovering historical documents. It is fundamentally about resource sovereignty, strategic control and economic development.

Belgium says the archives are already being digitised through the PanAfGeo programme and other scientific partnerships. However, the DRC is operating under a different timeline. Demand for copper, cobalt and other critical minerals has never been higher, and the government wants to accelerate exploration to support industrialisation and battery value chains.

From Kinshasa’s perspective, waiting several years for a phased digitisation programme could delay investment and national development. The immediate question is not simply who owns the archives but how quickly this geological intelligence can be mobilised under Congolese priorities.

Junior N. Badila: Exploration is becoming increasingly data-driven. AI and ML can analyse decades of geological maps, drill logs, geophysical surveys and satellite imagery in a fraction of the time required by traditional methods.

The value is not simply automation. AI helps identify patterns that might previously have been overlooked, allowing companies to prioritise the most prospective targets before expensive drilling campaigns begin. That reduces exploration risk, improves target selection and lowers overall costs.

Junior N. Badila: Absolutely. Geology itself does not change. Mineral deposits remain where they are, even if the technologies used to discover them have evolved enormously.

I was discussing this recently in Paris with a senior Congolese mining official, who made a point that has stayed with me. He said many of these colonial-era surveys contain geological maps, drill logs, geochemical analyses and field observations that would be prohibitively expensive and time-consuming to reproduce today. That is why these archives still matter.

Modern technologies including AI, airborne geophysics, hyperspectral imaging and satellite observations allow those historical datasets to be interpreted in completely new ways. They provide an invaluable geological baseline that can significantly improve exploration programmes.

Junior N. Badila: Certainly. Copper and cobalt will remain the immediate priorities because they already have proven geological potential. However, some of the greatest opportunities may actually lie outside today’s mature mining districts.

Large parts of the DRC remain comparatively under-explored despite exceptional geological diversity. Historical archives could stimulate renewed exploration for lithium and tin in the east of the country, gold in provinces where exploration was interrupted by decades of instability, and strategic minerals including tantalum, niobium and rare earth elements.

Making these datasets digitally accessible would also benefit junior exploration companies, universities and research institutions. Competition would increasingly depend not on who possesses geological information but on who can interpret it most effectively.

Junior N. Badila: The long-term outlook for cobalt remains positive, even if battery chemistries continue to evolve. Cobalt will remain important for high-performance batteries, aerospace, defence and industrial applications.

The bigger priority for the DRC should be moving beyond extraction by investing in refining, battery materials and domestic value addition. That requires reliable electricity, transport infrastructure, policy stability, technology transfer and skills development. These are the foundations needed to build competitive processing industries inside the country rather than exporting raw materials alone.

Junior N. Badila: In the DRC’s mining industry, cobalt deposits often occur alongside copper and other elements, including traces of uranium. As some miners put it, “uranium is hitching a ride on the cobalt.” This geological complexity can create additional technical, environmental and regulatory challenges for processing mineral concentrates domestically.

The government’s restrictions on copper and cobalt concentrate exports were officially intended to encourage mining companies to process minerals locally and export higher-value products. Export bans and restrictions were introduced or reinforced in 2013, 2019 and 2023. Yet domestic smelting and refining capacity remained insufficient, forcing the authorities to grant exemptions to some operators.

Despite growing investor interest in the Congolese mining sector, unreliable electricity supplies, limited transport infrastructure, financing constraints and weak logistics continue to obstruct the expansion of local processing capacity.

This exposes a central challenge for the energy transition. The DRC cannot fully reclaim sovereignty over its strategic minerals if it lacks the infrastructure, technology and institutional capacity to control more of the value chain—from exploration and production to processing, refining and export. Resource sovereignty requires more than ownership of deposits; it requires the ability to transform mineral wealth into lasting industrial and economic value.

Junior N. Badila: Every country seeks to obtain greater value from its strategic resources, and the DRC should be no different. The objective is not to discourage investors but to ensure that mining contributes more effectively to national development.

The government wants stronger oversight of strategic minerals, greater local value addition and a more active role in resource governance. Better geological information also strengthens the country’s negotiating position because decisions can be based on stronger evidence rather than assumptions. Investors continue to value certainty, but they also recognise that the DRC possesses world-class geological potential. With the right partnerships, transparent governance and a long-term approach, I believe the opportunities continue to outweigh the risks.